![]() Hell, it’s not even Justin Fuente’s Memphis team. If you bet on this game, you’re a damn fool. You could not get me to bet this line with a looted Brinks truck, no matter the fact ‘Bama is 4-2 ATS this season. Did I mention that Alabama hosts the Vols next week, then hosts LSU.all right after a tough physical and emotional tilt in Aggieland? Like Ohio State-Purdue, the Tide are into this one to win it then move on to an important game. After so many narrow losses, one really wonders how much more pride the Pigs have left in them. And that’s a pity: the defense has been standing on their head. Arkansas has dropped a lot of close games this year, and they still have one of the SEC’s best RB/QB tandems - no matter how poorly Dan Enos is using them. This may be the most toxic spread of the week. Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub. We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.įor a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. Welcome to Week Seven of 2023’s Giving Away Money. I believe the kids call this “bringing receipts.” Final score: 26 -20 Alabama. Alabama -6.18Ģ6-20 Alabama, subject to the caveat that the Tide are healthy. The Tide win the +/- battle to overcome shooting themselves in the foot, and two long Will Reichard field goals decide it. This is exactly one of those unknown-unknowns mentioned above. We’ve seen a ton of these collapses this year, honestly. Navy was up by a touchdown late, had stifled the North Texas offense.and then gave up 14 points in six minutes to turn a TD win into a TD loss. Trust running games and defense both of which tilt in favor of the USNA But only boneheads like Mario Cristobal and Jimbo Fisher can be responsible for the unknown-unknowns.Īnyway, just a prefatory note about what we actually do at GAM: Part art, mostly science, and a whole lot of bad football consumed every week. That’s why we’re here: the math captures the known-knowns and helps predict the known-unknowns. ![]() Like the Stoics of old, we can only control that which we can control (h/t to my dog, Marcus Aurelius). These are usually in the heat of the moment decisions, and ones that can’t ever be fully predicted. So too has the value of a “hidden” turnover risen: these are things like failed 4D conversions, third down penalties, analytically-awful 2nd and long rushes (side-eye Tommy Rees), and other little things that add up. And, as snaps are decreasing, as there are fewer drives, the value of a turnover is worth significantly more than in years past - about 40% more on a per-point basis than over a preceding five-year average. Still, just about all the variance in-game is arising from that which data can’t fully predict: the timing and field position of turnovers and other hidden variables. ![]() There have been far fewer fluke games than in years past (though we’ve seen a lot more spread-killing 4th quarter collapses this season). Overall, it’s been a pretty good year, honestly. ![]() I did the data for every game this week ( as I do every week), and intended to have midweek special for you on Monday, but formatting and expanding these takes a lot of time time that simply was not available.Īnd, not that it helps you, but I do go into today with a spiffy 4-1 record after the midweek. Yesterday got a bit more harried than I’d like. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |